Tonight is the start of the Australian Open semifinals. There have been some exciting matchups so far and I’ll be looking forward to the final 6 matches in the Men’s and Women’s singles draws. I’ll go in-depth to break down what each player will need to do to take home the title down under!
Aryna Sabalenka
If you could name only one player to pick to win pretty much any tournament she’s entered in over the past few years, it’s got to be Aryna Sabalenka. She’s been so dominant on all surfaces, but especially hard courts where her footing is solid and the bounce is predictable. She is always tough to beat, especially late in a slam. Through her first five matches, Sabalenka has both cruised to decisive wins, but she’s also been pushed to two tiebreakers by Potapova. Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at this year’s AO though.
How she will win: If I simplify the data to one key area for Sabalenka, winning the tournament will come down to her ability to get opportunities on her opponent’s serve. She averages 8.8 break chances per match, or 4.4 per set. Compared to her opponents’ 4.8 break chances per match, 2.4 per set. If Sabalenka can continue to pressure her opponent’s serve while taking care of her own, she will take the crown. Against Svitolina in the semi, Sabalenka will need to take time away by stepping into the court and getting on her front foot. Sabalenka is 6-1 against Svitolina overall and 4-0 in their last 4 meetings.
How she could lose: Sabalenka’s game is built around pace and court positioning. If Svitolina or RybakinaPegula can break her rhythm, Sabalenka could throw in more unforced errors than she has so far this tournament, opening the door for her opponent to take the match. Either way, the ball will be on Sabalenka’s racket, which is just what she wants!
Elina Svitolina
Svitolina has been play excellent tennis this tournament. She has won incredibly decisive matches against some of today’s top players: Andreeva and Gauff. Svitolina’s presence on tour continues to
How she will win: Svitolina would win down under by doing exactly what she has so far: returning incredibly well to put pressure on her opponents. Svitolina has had such decisive wins so far because she is breaking her opponents and returning serve so well. Svitolina will need to continue converting break points at a high rate (67% through her first five rounds). This will be a tough task against Sabalenka, but she has done the same against other top servers in the tournament and will look to do it again.
How she could lose: Svitolina has played great so far and has great wins over great, in-form players. For her semifinal matchup with Sabalenka and a potential final against Rybakina or Pegula, she will have the racket taken out of her hand more than other matchups, just by the aggressive styles of play from these other three semifinalists. Svitolina is playing some of the best tennis of her career currently, but it is a tough task to take down Sabalenka and either Rybakina or Pegula back-to-back to claim her first major title. If anyone can do it and would have tons of support from around the globe, it’s got to be Svitolina though!
Jessica Pegula
Pegula has been on fire in Australia this year. She has had a tough draw but has come through victorious in each test. She had a decisive wins over lower-ranked players in the first three rounds, and then backed it up with straight-set wins over defending champ Madison Keys and in-form Amanda Anisimova. Her run to the semifinal has been impressive and decisive.
How she will win: Pegula has been dominant on second serves throughout the tournament. On her serve, she has won more than 60% of her second-serve points in four of the five matches so far. Likewise, she has won more than 60% of her opponents’ second-serve points in every match, most of them being closer to 70%. Because of this, she is naturally getting a lot of break point opportunities while holding her opponents to very few chances. Additionally, Pegula should be pretty fresh going into the semifinal, as she has played the fewest number of singles points so far compared to the other semifinalists.
How she could lose: It will be tough for her to get the same looks at breaking Rybakina since she is such a great server, probably the best in the women’s game currently. Pegula is 3-3 against Rybakina, so it will be a tough semifinal matchup. In a potential final, Pegula would have chances and opportunities against either Sabalenka or Svitolina. She is 5-3 in her career against Svitolina and 3-9 against Sabalenka. Like with anyone, it will be tough to win back-to-back against anyone else in the field, but Pegula has the game where she will put pressure on her opponents and won’t often beat herself. Winning or losing for Pegula will likely come down to her serve. So far, she is winning a higher percentage of points on her second serve than her first. I don’t know how sustainable that is to continue winning against Rybakina and either of the other two in a potential final.
Elena Rybakina
Rybakina has had quite strong performances so far in Australia. She just defeated Swiatek 7-5, 6-1. Taking a set 6-1 over Swiatek is incredibly challenging to do, and I think that speaks volumes to how good Rybakina is at her highest level.
How she will win: I can summarize the key for Rybakina in two words: free points. Her serve is so so good and she will need to keep getting free and easy points from her serve to take the title. She is averaging almost 75% of her points when she makes her first serve, and her ace count per match has increased as the tournament has progressed. The way Rybakina goes after her first serve, she will need to be around 60% first serves in the court to continue her winning ways in the semifinal and potential final.
How she could lose: The matchups for Rybakina will be tough in the semifinal and potential final. She is 3-3 against Pegula. If Rybakina’s first serve percentage drops below 50%, she will have a tough time playing first-strike tennis against Pegula, since she is such a good ball striker and takes advantage of second serves. Rybakina has one primary style of play and if that isn’t working, it will be difficult for her to beat any of the other three players left in the draw with her “B-gameplan.” First serves and first strike tennis are crucial for Rybakina’s success as the AO comes to a close.
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