The Australian Open Men’s singles semifinals begin tonight with some exciting matchups. Alcaraz, Djokovic, Sinner, and Zverev are showing why they have consistently been the best in the world. Yes, there has been some luck involved for everyone here, but it should not be a surprise that these four are battling to win the title. Here’s what each player has done well so far, and what they will need to do to win in Australia.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz is exciting! His shot-making is absurd, and he is consistently one of the last guys standing in big tournaments. Even without Ferrero in his box, he has continued to show us all just how good he is.
How he will win: Alcaraz has played many different styles of opponents so far, and his game has adjusted to those unique matchups. He came to the net 50 times against Moutet, as opposed to the 20-25 times in other matches. He has adjusted to matchups and styles well and will likely continue, especially since he knows the game styles of the other three semifinalists well. Alcaraz isn’t recording tons of aces, but he is winning 75% of his first-serve points. Look for him to continue to put his opponents under pressure through intentionality with his serve +1.
How he could lose: Alcaraz can beat anyone on any given day. But at the same time, he has been prone to losing focus for stretches, and the three remaining players in the draw would definitely capitalize on that if it happens (that’s a big if based on his form so far). In his semifinal matchup with Zverev, Alcaraz could be under pressure by Zverev’s serving and his willingness to come forward and finish points at the net.
Alex Zverev
The best to ever play without winning a major… We all know it. Will this be his time?? Zverev is playing quite well this Australian Open and he is confident going into the semifinals.
How he will win: Zverev has consistently been among the best in the world and he has tons of match experience, especially against the other three guys remaining. Zverev may be the best server in the game right now, recording 80 aces and only 6 double faults through his first five matches. His first serve is a huge weapon that he will need to be strong in order to break through and win his first major title. His serve is also a huge reason why he has been able to get to the net so often: strong first serves create short balls that he can attack.
How he could lose: Zverev is coming forward at good times, winning 73% of his points at net, but he also hasn’t faced players who are as good at passing as Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic. He needs to come forward to win, but he also cannot force the issue or he will be giving these guys an easy target to get it by him. If his first-serve percentage dips down and Zverev is needing to hit more second serves, it could be difficult to hold serve often enough to get a win over any of these guys.
Jannik Sinner
Sinner was on the brink of defeat in his third-round match against Spizzirri. After willing his way to a victory, with a little external help along the way, he has looked quite strong against solid opponents.
How he will win: Sinner will have chances to win if he sees a lot of second serves from his opponents. In his five prior matches, Sinner has won 62% of return points against his opponent’s second serve. As a result, he’s breaking serve 4.8 times per match. Line that up with how well he has been serving and it will be tough for any opponent to gain an advantage for 3 out of 5 sets.
How he could lose: We saw it in the Spizzirri match, Sinner could be susceptible to the elements. If the roof is open and the sun is shining, it could end up being too much for his aggressive and physical style of play. With the roof closed, it’s hard to imagine anyone being able to hurt Sinner consistently enough to take the match. In order to do it, one of the three remaining players will need to be committed to coming forward in the court and finishing points at the net.
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has experienced a fortunate draw due to some unfortunate injuries of his opponents. While he has not been playing his best tennis of his life, he is here in the semifinals again, and everyone knows how dangerous he can be late in a tournament.
How he will win: Djokovic is fresh, having played the fewest points of anyone still in the draw. He benefitted from a walkover and mid-match retirement in his previous two rounds. Djokovic is taking care of his first serve, winning almost 80% of his first-serve points. With the exception of Musetti, he has not given up more than 2 breaks in any match he played. Djokovic has also earned many break points, as the great returner he is, and will need to capitalize on those opportunities in the semifinal and potentially the final to win.
How he could lose: The match with Musetti showed that Djokovic is not playing his best currently, but he has enough experience to know that can change any day. The matchup for Djokovic against Sinner is tough because Djokovic will need to search for ways to hurt Sinner that are not natural to his preferred style of play. Specifically, Novak will need to move up in the court and finish points inside the baseline. If Sinner (or either of the other two in the final) can push Novak behind the baseline and extend rallies, it will be tough for Djokovic to win enough points consistently.
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